The trade dispute between the U.S. and China grew last week, as the Trump administration enacted 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliated immediately with 10% tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods. For those keeping score out there,[…]Read More
10 years ago last week, on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. At the time, few investors, analysts, or investment professionals fully understood the extent of damage the Lehman event would ultimately cause.
The S&P 500 fell by -28% in just 22 days,[…]
Economic data is arguably firing on all cylinders:
For the first time in ten years, the GDP growth rate is higher than the unemployment rate1;
The August edition of the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index showed the strongest expansion of manufacturing activity since May 2004;[…]
The next big market crisis will be caused by….
The short answer, unfortunately, is that no one can say for sure. But, we do have insight and a strong opinion about what will not cause the next crisis: toxic subprime loans and over-leveraged banks,[…]
The yield curve is one of the most coveted of economic indicators, and for good reason – in my view, it can provide investors with useful insights about how the economy, stocks, and bonds could perform going forward. And at the end of the day,[…]Read More
Stocks are generally not influenced by a single factor. It is usually a multitude of factors pushing and pulling prices at any given time. Earnings may serve as tailwinds breathing positive momentum into stocks, while tariffs could do the opposite and serve as headwinds.[…]Read More
Not to be too alarming, but we strongly believe that a bear market is headed our way.
We do not think it will happen in the next six or even twelve months, and no one can say for sure when it will occur or what will actually cause it.[…]
Watchful investors may have noticed a trend that has taken shape over the last year and a half or so, as it relates to growth vs. value stocks. Namely, that growth stocks have been stoutly outperforming value stocks since the beginning of last year:
Growth Stocks (Red Line) Have Recently Outperformed Value Stocks (Blue Line)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St.[…]
On June 23, 2016, voters in the United Kingdom took the bold step of opting to leave the European Union. Yet here we are, over two years later, and there is still no deal for how ‘Brexit’ will actually occur – in fact,[…]Read More
For the better part of a century, economists have been wrangling over the most effective and accurate way to measure the U.S. economy’s size and growth. Spoiler alert: they haven’t found it yet.1
To be fair, the task before them is monumental – measuring an economy as diverse,[…]