Market Commentary

Junk Bond Bear Market?

December 18th, 2015
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Junk Bond Bear Market? – Since around mid-2014, junk bonds have felt the sting of declines particularly as crude oil prices have fallen. A sizable portion of the high yield market is based in commodities companies’ debt, which has been hit across the board as gas,[…]

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Interest Rates, Crude Oil, U.S. Govt. Funding…

December 11th, 2015
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Interest Rate Hike Next Week? – mark your calendars! On Wednesday, December 16, the Federal Reserve will meet and almost certainly raise interest rates for the first time since June 2006. It’s about time. In our view, and as Mitch has written several times over,[…]

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China Currency, Bank Downgrades, Fed Plans

December 4th, 2015
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China Gets a Seat at the Reserve Currency Table – China’s currency, the yuan, gained inclusion into the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights basket this week, a move the Chinese central bank has been posturing to achieve for some time.[…]

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Weak Import Data, Paris Aftermath, Tech IPOs…

November 20th, 2015
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Weak Import Data Something to Watch – this late in the cycle, the U.S. economy is a patchwork of strengths and weaknesses but also set for growth on balance. A piece of data released this week raised an eyebrow though – for the first time in a decade,[…]

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“Singles Day”, Big Beer, Crude Oil, and more…

November 13th, 2015
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This week, we’re starting and ending with China as there was some big retail news there and a development that may warrant a short-term “volatility alert”…
“Singles Day” Underscores China’s Resilience – for all the headlines warning of a weakening China,[…]

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Is the Correction Over?

I Think the Correction is Officially Over – the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from reclaiming its July 20 high in further evidence the selling pressure experienced in late August was a correction, not a bear market. I’ve written about this several times noting I saw the selling pressure as short-term,[…]

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Tech Domination, The Future of Retail, Budget Deal and more…

October 30th, 2015
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Tech Domination in Earnings Round-Up – Including Apple’s report this week, as of this writing, we now have Q3 reports from 32 of the 64 Tech companies in the S&P 500 (which, combined, account for 65.6% of the sector’s total market cap in the index).[…]

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Hedge Funds Underperforming, Ferrari Goes Public, Alphabet (Google) Powers Ahead and more…

October 23rd, 2015
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Hedge Funds Continue to Underperform – in Q3, hedge funds suffered their largest quarterly loss in assets since 2008 – a reminder that even hedge funds are not immune to downside volatility. According to Hedge Fund Research, the average fund lost 3.9% in the third quarter,[…]

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U.S. Jobs Report, Massive Trade Deal with Asia, Twitter News, and more…

October 9th, 2015
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Mixed Feelings About the U.S. Jobs Report – late last week, the U.S. monthly jobs report disappointed many investors and analysts with the economy adding just 142,000 jobs in September – or about 60,000 fewer than expected. Regardless, the unemployment rate remains at 5.1%,[…]

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Xi Jinping’s Visit, Microsoft’s China Connection, Volkswagen Woes, and More

September 25th, 2015
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Xi Jinping’s U.S. Visit Overshadowed by the Pope – the pontiff grabbed all the attention this week in his first visit to the United States.  Pope Francis’ candid and often politically charged views provoke thought and unsettle politicians across the spectrum,[…]

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