Should You Brace for Volatility in September?
Emerging Markets (EM) have taken a beating recently while history shows that September could be a volatile month. Read on to get the details…
Emerging Markets Currencies in Trouble? Emerging Markets (EM) have taken a beating lately. If one considers EEM a good barometer for Emerging Markets equity performance, it’s plain to see that it’s been rough going for 2018. Of particular concern lately are EM currencies, with the Turkish lira and the Argentinian peso grabbing headlines with year-to-date declines against the dollar in the 50% range. The pain is not confined to those two currencies, however, as the South African rand and the Indian rupee are also feeling declines. The larger issue here, in our view, is that the loose financial conditions that were created in response to the global financial crisis are now reversing course. The Federal Reserve is now in the process of raising interest rates, the Bank of England is doing the same, and even the European Central Bank has given indication that it plans to reduce or remove asset purchases by the end of the year. The era of easy money is arguably coming to an end, which means that capital inflows that were once supporting EM borrowing may start to dry up.1
Bracing for the Stock Market in September – history says that September could be a volatile month. Going back to 1945, September has been the S&P 500’s worst performing month, and with the market hovering around all-time highs, investors would not be unreasonable to look onto the month with a bit of caution, in our view. But it is also our view that all-time highs do not necessarily imply the market is ready to correct or turn over, particularly with economic fundamentals as positive as we believe they are today. The stock markets know no calendar, so in our view investors shouldn’t base investment decisions on one either.2
To help you answer this question, it is important to understand your long-term goals, your risk tolerance, your investment time horizon and other factors that make up your financial situation. To help you do this I recommend reading our guide, “4 Steps to Managing Your Retirement Assets.”
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to get our answers to this question and more, click on the link below to get your free guide today!
Redefining the “Accredited Investor?” The SEC announced this week that it wants to review – and perhaps alter – the rules that prohibit certain types of investors from committing capital to private companies, including some of the world’s most noteworthy start-ups. As it stands currently, the rules require an investor to qualify as an “accredited investor” – meeting certain income and net worth requirements – in order to invest in private deals. Because private deals often (but not always) involve riskier terms and more opaque financial details about the investment in question, the rules were put in place to prevent fraud and to protect smaller “mom and pop” investors. As of today the rules have not changed, but the SEC is pursuing possible changes in the future.4
Oh, Canada! The future of NAFTA remains unknown, as a deadline passed last week to structure a new NAFTA trade deal that would involve Canada. President Trump upped his bare-knuckle approach by stating over the weekend that “there is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal,” adding that “Congress should not interfere with these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off.” Trade officials from both countries met this week to try and hash out provisions that would be agreeable to both countries, but if the words of President Trudeau and President Trump are to be heeded, it feels unlikely that the two nations will get there. President Trump has the power to terminate NAFTA if Canada does not agree on a new deal, assuming he does so with six months’ notice to Congress. But even then, the termination would face so many legal challenges that it is unclear it would hold.5 Meanwhile, for all the tariff bluster and posturing, the desired result appears to be fleeting: the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.1 billion in July, up $4.3 billion from $45.7 billion in June.6
While keeping an eye on NAFTA, emerging markets, volatility and other timely stories can help guide your investments, in my opinion, you do not want to get too caught up trying to predict what will happen next or how these stories could affect the market. In my experience, it can be more beneficial to focus on YOUR financial situation. While you probably can’t predict what will happen next with the market, you can try to prepare for what’s to come.
You may be wondering how you can determine your long-term goals, your risk tolerance, your investment time horizon and other factors that make up your financial situation. This can be a difficult process to navigate on your own. So, to help you get a head start, I would recommend referring to our guide, “4 Steps to Managing Your Retirement Assets.7”
This guide offers insight to help you make critical decisions about your retirement and outlines four simple steps that can give you an added advantage when you retire. Get your free copy today by clicking on the link below.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free guide today!
2 The Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-return-to-records-paves-way-for-volatile-autumn-1535972400?mod=djem10point
3 ZIM may amend or rescind the Guide “4 Steps to Managing your Retirement Assets” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.
4 The Wall Street Journal, Aug 30, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-chairman-wants-to-let-more-main-street-investors-in-on-private-deals-1535648208?mod=djem10point
5 The Wall Street Journal. September 5, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-u-s-negotiators-in-intense-talks-says-trump-1536177228?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=4
6 BEA, Sep 5, 2018, https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
7 ZIM may amend or rescind the Guide “4 Steps to Managing your Retirement Assets” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.
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