Fed Signals Lower Longer Rates, “K-shaped” Recovery, Fastest Bear Ever
In today’s Steady Investor, we look at the current state of the market, what could be next, and key factors that we believe are currently impacting the market such as:
- Fed makes rare policy statement
- What businesses flourish while others flounder?
- A look into the fastest bear market in history
- China’s road to rapid economic recovery
Fed Makes Rare Policy Statement, Signaling Lower for Longer Rates – In late August, the Federal Reserve was the economic talk-of-the-town when they announced a “flexible form of average inflation targeting,” which essentially meant they were comfortable allowing inflation to drift above 2% for “some time.” The ‘read between the lines’ message was that the Fed was willing to leave rates low for a longer stretch of time, and possibly commit to more asset purchases in the near to medium term. This week, the Federal Reserve doubled down on the accommodative messaging by releasing projections showing interest rates near zero for at least three years. All 17 Fed officials said they believed rates would stay near zero at least through the end of 2021, and 13 officials predicted rates would anchor to the zero bound through 2023. Speaking of low interest rates, global demand for U.S. Treasuries throughout the crisis has kept longer-term interest rates near historic lows, which has pushed the cost of borrowing down 10% over the last year.1 Interestingly, the cost of servicing debt has become cheaper for the U.S. despite the sharp economic recession and heavy government borrowing.
9 of the Biggest Financial Mistakes You Should Avoid During this Crisis!
Looking at the current state of the economy and the unknowns surrounding the pandemic like if a market correction is in the near future, many investors may be wondering what to do and how to prepare for what’s to come, especially when it comes to retirement planning.
While there are many unknowns at present, we believe there are nine common mistakes that many investors make when planning for retirement. In our guide, 9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid, we outline these mistakes and how you can potentially avoid them.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free copy:
Learn About the 9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid!2
Hiring and Firing – Some economists have referred to the U.S. recovery as “K-shaped,” implying that while some businesses and professions flourish in the pandemic economy, others are increasingly suffering. A prime example of this tale of haves and have-nots can be seen in recent hiring trends in retail. Amazon announced this week that they plan to hire an additional 100,000 employees in the U.S. and Canada this year, which continues a rapid expansion of their workforce, particularly as people stay home and order goods online. Meanwhile, the other side of the retail coin looks increasingly bleak. U.S. airlines lost 50,000 jobs in the first six months of the year, and traditional retailers like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, and J. Crew have filed for bankruptcy.3 A crisis almost always creates winners and losers, but the Covid-19 pandemic’s collision course with changing consumer and business trends has accelerated the market’s reshuffling.
Fastest Bear Market Recovery in History – Looking at all bear markets going back to 1928, U.S. equity markets took an average of about 1,500 trading sessions to recapture all-time highs, which marks about a six-year recovery from a downturn. In this cycle, it took the Dow and the S&P 500 just 126 trading sessions to post a full recovery, which is obviously just a fraction of the time and marks an astounding and unprecedented “v-shaped” bounce. Never before have the equity markets recovered this quickly from a bear. Behind the rally has been extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus (which also arrived in record time and came in record dollar figures), a “worse than the Great Depression” narrative that never materialized, and of course, behemoth Tech companies with solid earnings throughout the crisis.4
China on Course for Rapid Economic Recovery – China’s economy has been seeing strong gains in factory production, investment, and property activity as the Covid-19 outbreak is fully under control, with no new cases reported in weeks. What’s been missing from the positive data, however, is retail sales. China’s export economy allowed it to focus on restarting factories and business to drive the first leg of its economic recovery, while keeping consumers largely at home and on lockdown to stem the spread of the virus. With no new cases reported in weeks, shopping malls, movie theaters, gyms, and restaurants are all brimming with customers. By one measure, the last 10 days of August showed revenues at movie theaters at 90% of the same period last year. China’s GDP expanded by 3.2% in Q2 from a year earlier.5 As the second largest economy in the world, China’s recovery is meaningful to larger trends of global economic growth and may provide needed support in the coming months.
Retirement Mistakes to Avoid During this Unprecedented
Time – There are common mistakes and habits that we believe can help
some investors succeed while others fail. So while we can’t predict or control
what is in store for the market, investors can stay focused on making sure
their own actions help guide their investments to succeed and not to fall prey
to common investing mistakes.
To help you understand some of these mistakes and how to avoid them, we have created the guide, 9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid.6
In this guide, we provide our thoughts on what we believe are 9 of the biggest retirement mistakes investors should avoid. If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below:
2 ZIM may amend or rescind the free guide “9 of the biggest retirement mistakes investors should avoid” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion
3 The Wall Street Journal, September 14, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-hire-100-000-in-u-s-and-canada-11600071208
4 The Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-did-stock-markets-rebound-from-covid-in-record-time-here-are-five-reasons-11600182704?mod=djem10point
5 The Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economy-picks-up-speed-as-shoppers-moviegoers-return-11600157539
6 ZIM may amend or rescind the free guide “9 of the biggest retirement mistakes investors should avoid” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion
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